Category Archives: group and sector

Intraday snapshot in action

Tuesday our intraday snapshot revealed groups were strong still, but the Expert System showed weakness in stocks – we can profit while markets are still open.

We downloaded the snapshot midway through the trading day, ran our reports and right off noticed the AI Expert Rating system on stocks showed far more down ratings than up. The groups were still strongly up.

This video shows what we saw mid morning 9-10-19

The fastest way to browse hundreds of charts end of day is back with a vengeance. AIQ TradingExpert Pro has always been known for its ability to browse hundreds of daily price charts at blizzard speeds (one of the many unique features in the platform). 

The fastest way to browse hundreds of charts end of day is back with a vengeance. AIQ TradingExpert Pro has always been known for its ability to browse hundreds of daily price charts at blizzard speeds (one of the many unique features in the platform).  

Also includes historical data on US and Canadian stocks updated every night and Mutual Fund NAVs updated each night.

How do traders use this powerful data?

  • For the Chart Pattern Recognition traders this is the Ferrari of analysis tools. It’s simple to scan hundreds of charts to see the patterns emerging the same day it’s happening.​
  • For traders who look for groups or sectors on the move, our intraday snapshot updates AIQ’s powerful groups and sectors too, so you can get ahead of a move in the market segments before the rest of the crowd.
  • For traders who want to place trades in the last hour of the trading day,  downloading a snapshot in the last hour of trading day has almost the entire days action for your stocks, you can do your end of day analyze and place tomorrows trades today.

PLUS all the powerful features of AIQ TradingExpert Pro end of day including

  • AI-based Signals Uncover Hidden Trades – Award winning AI-based expert system screens for trading candidates that may have been missed by other systems, giving you an edge.
  • Time Saving Analysis with Chart Barometer – Our Indicator Barometer gives you an instant evaluation of the status of all indicators for each chart. Saving you time and allowing an easy to read analysis of any ticker. 
  • Every Chart your way with Custom Layouts – Whether you prefer price bar, candlestick, or point and figure charts, we’ve got them. Plus, TradingExpert Pro delivers all the trendline and drawing tools that you expect in a top end package, including Fibonacci Studies, Gann Fans, and Regression Lines.
  • Time Saving Power! 200 Screening Reports – TradingExpert Pro automatically performs millions of computations and delivers instant access to one and two-page reports highlighting trading candidates for stocks, indexes, mutual funds, groups and sectors and more. Want to find tickers in a trend? We got it. Relative strength? Upside and downside at your fingertips. Volume Spikes, Persistence of Money Flow, Price Gap, Point and Figure Breakouts and many many more……All generated each day automatically…
  • Building a Trading System just got a Whole lot Easier – TradingExpert Pro provides an amazing way to design, test, and automate virtually any trading idea. It’s called the Expert Design Studio and is considered by traders to be the best tool of its kind. That’s because it combines a point-and-click interactive trading library with state-of-the-art back testing and gives you the ability to produce custom screening reports. PLUS our Pre-built strategies have been fine-tuned by our analysts to produce outstanding results. They include Growth, Divergence, Short Selling,  Day Trading, and Bottom Fishing models, to name just a few.
  • Complete Array of Analysis Tools – TradingExpert Pro’s Proven Market Timing “too good to ignore.” Introduced in 1986, AIQ’s market timing system called the Crash of ‘87 and has called all major market moves since. Its multi-indicator, rule-based approach for determining market direction is time proven.  

AND TradingExpert Pro also includes:

  • Professional Level Portfolio Management
  • Matchmaking Correlation tools
  • Automate Your Winning Systems with Portfolio Simulation Tools

Also includes historical data on US and Canadian stocks updated every night and Mutual Fund NAVs updated each night.

AND ALL AT OUR LOWEST PRICE FOR YEARS

LEARN MORE

The 2018 updated SP500 Group and Sector

The 2018 updated SP500 Group and Sector structure for TradingExpert Pro is now available


This completely updated structure is current through the end of December 2018. Many sectors and groups have been renamed by S&P and the new structure reflects these changes. The old SP500 structure in your program will be replaced if you choose to install the update. 

The complete install and further instructions are available at http://aiqsystems.com/sp500_update_2019.html


The SP500 structure in AIQ Charts and Data Manager showing new group and sector naming shown below

Here Are The Warning Signs to Watch For

Here’s a number for you – 88%.  Since 1948, over any 10-year period the Dow has showed a gain 88% of the time.  That’s a pretty good number.  It also explains why we should give bull markets the benefit of the doubt (for the record, if you only hold the Dow between the end of October and the end of May every year you would have a showed a 10-year gain 98% of the time!  But this article is not about seasonality per se, so that’s a topic for another day).
Of course, there is a lot of variability along the way, and if you Google “current signs of a bear market” you come up with 4,280,000 articles to peruse.  So, few investors ever feel “contented”.  We’re always waiting for the “other shoe to drop.”
Some Warning Signs to Look For
#1. Major Indexes
Figure 1 displays the four major average – Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 with their respective 200-day moving averages.  In the last few days the Dow slipped a little below its 200-day average, the other three remain above.

(click to enlarge)1aFigure 1 – Four major market averages with 200-day moving averages (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Warning Sign to Watch For: If 3 or more of these averages drop below their 200-day moving average.
#2. Market Bellwethers
Figure 2 displays my four market “bellwhethers” – tickers SMH (semiconductors), TRAN (Dow Transports), ZIV (inverse VIX) and BID (Sotheby’s Holdings) with their respective 200-day moving averages.  At the moment only ZIV is below it’s 200-day moving average but some of the others are close

(click to enlarge)2Figure 2 – Four market bellwethers with 200-dqy moving averages (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Warning Sign to Watch For: If 3 or more of these averages drop below their 200-day moving average.
#3. S&P 500 Monthly Method
In this article I detailed a simple timing method using S&P 500 Index monthly closing prices.  Figure 3 show the S&P 500 Index with it’s “trigger warning” price of 2,532.69 highlighted.

(click to enlarge)3Figure 3 – S&P 500 Index Monthly Method Trigger Points (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Warning Sign to Watch For: If SPX closes below 2532.69 without first taking out the January high of 2872.87
#4. International Growth Stocks
When growth stocks around the world are performing well, things are good.  When they top out, try to rebound and then fail, things are (typically) not so good.  The last two major U.S. bear markets were presaged by a break in ticker VWIGX (Vanguard International Growth) as seen in Figure 4.

(click to enlarge)4Figure 4 – Dow Jones Industrials Average (top) and previous warnings from ticker VWIGX (bottom)(Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Warning Sign to Watch For: Technically this one is currently flashing a warning sign.  That warning will remain active unless and until VWIGX takes out the January high of 33.19.
#5. The 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread
This is one of the most misrepresented indicators, so I will state it as plainly as possible:
*A narrowing yield curve IS NOT a bearish sign for the stock market
*An actual inverted yield curve IS a bearish sign for the stock market
Figure 5 displays the latest 10-year minus 2-year spread.  Yes, it has narrowed quite a bit.  This has launched a bazillion and one erroneously frightening articles.  But remember the rules above.

(click to enlarge)5Figure 5 – 10-year treasury yield minus 2-year treasury yield (Courtesy: www.StockCharts.com)

Warning Sign to Watch For: If the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield falls into negative territory it will flash a powerful warning sign for the stock market and the overall economy.  Until then ignore all the hand-wringing about a “flattening” yield curve.
Summary
We are in a seasonally unfavorable period for the stock market and – as always – we are bombarded daily with a thousand and one reasons why the next bear market is imminent.
So my advice is to do the following:
1. Ignore it all and keep track of the items listed above
2. The more warning signs that appear – if any – the more defensive you should become
In the meantime, try to go ahead and enjoy your summer.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer:  The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources.  While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information.  The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

Buy Low(?)

There are a lot of ways to play this game.
For the record, I am a big believer in trend-following.  Picking tops and bottoms with any consistency is essentially impossible (at least in my opinion and/or experience).  So from that perspective going with the trend makes a lot of sense.  I am also a big believer in relative strength.  Much evidence over the years suggests that buying what is “already moving” is a very viable approach to investing.  Other studies have demonstrated pretty clearly that you are generally much more likely to succeed by buying stocks making new highs than by buying stocks making new lows.
These approaches make good sense and they work very well over time.  Despite this many (most?) investors still feel those pangs to “buy low” in hopes of getting in early and riding a major trend.  And the truth (I think) is that this can work too, if done correctly.
Like I said, there are a lot of ways to play this game.  But there is a definite “right” way and “wrong” way when it comes to “buying low.”
Buying Low (The Wrong Way): Buy things are plummeting or that have recently plummeted.
The Right Way (The Right Way): Buy things that have, a) plummeted, b) stopped plummeting and, c) have since been moving sideways for some period of time.
Last year I wrote about a “Buy Low” portfolio that I had concocted at the time.  Unfortunately, several of the ETFs involved have since ceased trading.  So in this piece I will introduce my updated “Buy Low” portfolio.  For the record – and as always – I am not “recommending” this portfolio.  It is essentially an experiment in one alternative approach to investing.
The “Buy Low” Portfolio
The Buy Low Portfolio consists of the following ETF’s and ETN’s:
CANE – Tecrium Sugar
JJOFF – Coffee Subindex Total Return
DBA – PowerShares Agricultural
WEAT – Tecrium Wheat
GLD – StreetTracks Gold Trust
PPLT – ETFS Physical Platinum Shares
SLV – iShares Silver Trust
GDX – Market Vectors Gold Miners
UNG – United States Natural Gas
URA – Global X Uranium
Monthly charts for these tickers appear in Figures 1 through 3.  A chart of the composite index I created by combining all of these appears in Figure 4 (Click any chart to enlarge).
1aFigure 1 – CANE/DBA/GDX/GLD (courtesy AIQ TradingExpert Pro)
2Figure 2 – JJOFF/PPLT/SLV/UNG (courtesy AIQ TradingExpert Pro)
3Figure 3 – URA/UNG (courtesy AIQ TradingExpert Pro)
4Figure 4 – Buy Low Composite Index (courtesy AIQ TradingExpert Pro)
Editors note: To create an index like Jay’s Trending Low, follow the instructions at the end of this article ‘Creating an index for a group of tickers in Data Manager’
Summary
Securities that have plummeted in price and then moved sideways for a period of time can (unfortunately) continue to move sideways for quite a while longer before (hopefully) breaking out to the upside.  Even worst, they can also fail and breakdown through the previous low. But extended consolidation patterns are often followed by something good.
As you can see all of the tickers in the list above are commodity related.  As I’ve written about here and here there is reason to believe that commodities will outperform in the years ahead.  That being said, with the stock market rallying in the near-term and with the U.S. Dollar strong there is no compelling reason to think that this “Buy Low Portfolio” is going to make a lot of  headway anytime soon.
The Index in Figure 4 is presently 8.2% above its January 2016 low.  As long as that low holds I’ll give this experiment more time to work out.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer:  The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources.  While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information.  The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
Creating an index for a group of tickers in Data Manager


NOTE: tickers with X in list need to be added to the Data Manager as new tickers and downloaded from your data service

When you create an index for a group of tickers, you can display a chart of the index as well as the underlying tickers. A group index can be analyzed on charts using technical indicators, and Expert Ratings are generated for the group index (except for mutual fund
groups).

The procedure for creating an index for a group of tickers is as follows:

  • First, create a group ticker for the index.
  • Then create a list to insert the group ticker into.
  • Add tickers to the group.
  • Finally, create the index by executing the Compute Group/Sector Indices function.


To create an index for a group of tickers, follow the steps below.

First, create a group ticker:

1. First, add a new group ticker to your Master Ticker List. Select the
Ticker command on the menu bar. Then select New to display the
New Ticker dialog box.
2. Enter a ticker for the new group, then be sure to enter the proper
Type designation (group or mutual fund group).
3. Click OK, and the second dialog box for entering a new ticker
appears.
4. Type in a name (Description) and the First Date for data. The
remaining default settings on this second dialog box can remain the
same.
5. Click OK and the group ticker is added to your Master Ticker List.

Then, create a list to insert the group ticker into:

1. Select the List command on the menu bar.
2. Select New on the drop-down menu and a dialog box appears.
3. Type in a name (8 characters maximum) in the text box.
4. Click OK and the list name appears in the Selected List text box
located on the toolbar.
5. The list name is also displayed in the List window. Insert the group
ticker from your Master Ticker List under the list name. To insert a ticker directly under a list, do the following:

  • Highlight (by clicking) the group ticker in the Master Ticker List.
  • Click the list name in the List window.
  • Click the Insert to List button on the toolbar (or select the Insert Ticker command from the List sub-menu).
  • The group ticker will appear in the List window under the list name.

6. Next, insert tickers into the group. To insert tickers into a group:
Under the new group, insert all of the tickers that will make up the
group by doing the following:

  • Select the group ticker in the List window by clicking on it.
  • Select in your Master Ticker List the tickers that you want to add to the group. If you are inserting multiple tickers, hold down the Ctrl key while clicking each ticker.
  • Click the Insert to List button on the toolbar (or select the Insert Ticker command from the List sub-menu).
  • The tickers will appear in the List window under the group ticker.

7. Finally, compute the index for the new group. To compute a group index:

  • Select Compute Group/Sector Indices from the Utilities sub-menu.
  • In the Compute Group/Sector Indices dialog box, click the Compute List(s) option button.
  • In the text box for Compute List(s), select the name of the list you created above.
  • Under Range, choose Update from Last Date of Data and click OK.