Category Archives: indexes

Keeping a Wary Eye on the “Scary Stuff”

In many ways the markets imitate life.  For example, the trend is your friend.  You may enjoy your friendship with the trend for an indefinite length of time.  But the moment you ignore it – or just simply take it for granted that this friendship is permanent, with no additional effort required on your part – that’s when the trouble starts.

For the stock market right now, the bullish trend is our friend.  Figure 1 displays the 4 major indexes all above their respective – and rising – long-term moving averages.  This is essentially the definition of a “bull market.” 

Figure 1 – 4 Major Indexes in Bullish Trends (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

In addition, a number of indicators that I follow have given bullish signals in the last 1 to 8 months.  These often remain bullish for up to a year.  So, for the record, with my trusted trend-following, oversold/thrust and seasonal indicators mostly all bullish I really have no choice but to be in the bullish camp.

Not that I am complaining mind you.  But like everyone else, I try to keep my eyes open for potential signs of trouble.  And of course, there are always some.  One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is determining when is the proper time to actually pay attention to the “scary stuff.”  Because scary stuff can be way early or in other cases can turn out to be not that scary at all when you look a little closer. 

So, let’s take a closer look at some of the scary stuff.

Valuations

Figure 2 displays an aggregate model of four separate measures of valuation.  The intent is to gain some perspective as to whether stocks are overvalued, undervalued or somewhere in between.

Figure 2 – Stock Market valuation at 2nd highest level ever (Courtesy: www.advisorperspectives.com)

Clearly the stock market is “overvalued” if looked at from a historical perspective.  The only two higher readings preceded the tops in 1929 (the Dow subsequently lost -89% of its value during the Great Depression) and 2000 (the Nasdaq 100 subsequently lost -83% of its value). 

Does this one matter?  Absolutely.  But here is what you need to know:

*Valuation IS NOT a timing indicator.  Since breaking out to a new high in 1995 the stock market has spent most of the past 25 years in “overvalued” territory.  During this time the Dow Industrials have increased 700%.  So, the proper response at the first sign of overvaluation should NOT be “SELL.”

*However, ultimately valuation DOES matter. 

Which leads directly to:

Jay’s Trading Maxim #44: If you are walking down the street and you trip and fall that’s one thing.  If you are climbing a mountain and you trip and fall that is something else.  And if you are gazing at the stars and don’t even realize that you are climbing a mountain and trip and fall – the only applicable phrase is “Look Out Below”.

So, the proper response is this: instead of walking along and staring at the stars, keep a close eye on the terrain directly in front of you.  And watch out for cliffs.

Top 5 companies as a % of S&P 500 Index

At times through history certain stocks or groups of stocks catch “lightning in a bottle.”  And when they do the advances are spectacular, enriching anyone who gets on board – unless they happen to get on board too late.  Figure 3 displays the percentage of the S&P 500 Index market capitalization made up by JUST the 5 largest cap companies in the index at any given point in time. 

Figure 3 – Top 5 stocks as a % of S&P 500 Index market cap (Courtesy: www.Bloomberg.com)

The anecdotal suggestion is pretty obvious.  Following the market peak in 2000, the five stocks listed each took a pretty significant whack as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4 – Top Stocks after the 2000 Peak

Then when we look at how far the line in Figure 3 has soared in 2020 the obvious inference is that the 5 stocks listed for 2020 are due to take a similar hit.  And here is where it gets interesting.  Are MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and FB due to lose a significant portion of their value in the years directly ahead?

Two thoughts:

*There is no way to know for sure until it happens

*That being said, my own personal option is “yes, of course they are”

But here is where the rubber meets the road: Am I presently playing the bearish side of these stocks?  Nope.  The trend is still bullish.  Conversely, am I keeping a close eye and am I willing to play the bearish side of these stocks?  Yup.  But not until they – and the overall market – actually starts showing some actual cracks.

One Perspective on AAPL

Apple has been a dominant company for many years, since its inception really.  Will it continue to be?  I certainly would not bet against the ability of the company to innovate and grow its earnings and sales in the years ahead. Still timing – as they say – is everything.  For what it is worth, Figure 5 displays the price-to-book value ratio for AAPL since January 1990.

Figure 5 – AAPL price-to-book value ratio (Data courtesy of Sentimentrader.com)

Anything jump out at you?

Now one can argue pretty compellingly that price-to-book value is not the way to value a leading technology company.  And I probably agree – to a point.  But I can’t help but look at Figure 5 and wonder if that point has possibly been exceeded.

Summary

Nothing in this piece is meant to make you “bearish” or feel compelled to sell stocks.  For the record, I am still in the bullish camp.  But while this information DOES NOT constitute a “call to action”, IT DOES constitute a “call to pay close attention.” 

Bottom line: enjoy the bull market but DO NOT fall in love with it. 

Jay Kaeppel

Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author.  The information presented represents the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service.  In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.  The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources.  While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information.  International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  There is risk of loss in all trading.  Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance.  Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.

The Bartometer

November 14, 2020

Hello Everyone,

Well, the election is over and and if Trump doesn’t win the contested vote then Biden is President. My biggest concern going forward is the race in Georgia that could switch the control of the senate to the Democrats enabling them unchecked control in the government. If this happens, and Democrats get rid of the filibuster rule there could be volatily in the stock and bond markets because: It could increase taxes on corporations, raise capital gains taxes and estate taxes by reducing the couple estate tax exclusion from $11 million to $3.5 milllion.

If the Democrats don’t win then there will be gridlock, and gridlock meaning that many of the tax increases may not pass. We will see what happens on January 5th 2021. Currently my Technical Analysis computer is still on a Buy-Hold as of about a week to 2 weeks ago, but it changes daily.

The increases in the Covid 19 virus is again causing Governors in many states to restrict access to non-essential business. This will reduce earnings of many corporations but increase the earnings of technology companies that are benefitting by people using their goods and services from home. Once a safe and effective vaccine is created by either Pfizer or Moderna, and when people feel safe to travel/use the goods and services of non essential companies will they prevail. then the Value stocks, eg., the cruise lines, airlines, resorts, restaurants, retail, manufacturing, telecommunications and more should rise. Until that time, the market will be volatile.

We are now in a seasonally strong time for the stock markets, but with the overhang of the senate election in Georgia, and the increase in Covid 19 coupled with the upcoming Flu season, caution is still somewhat appropriate. For people who are more Cautious in general, but over the next 1-2 years I still think the market could go higher even though the market is about 6% overvalued mostly because of the technology stocks. When the pandemic is even close to nearing its conclusion, the Value sector should continue its rise. So, small, mid and large value stocks could be the bigger winner, and if we get a selloff because of Covid 19, I will be buying those sectors.

Some of the INDEXES of the markets both equities and interest rates are below. The source is Morningstar.com up until Novemeber 14, 2020. These are passive indexes.

Dow Jones +5.1%
S&P 500 +12.2%
EQUAL WEIGHTED S&P 500 +3.1%
NASDAQ Aggressive growth +29%
Large Cap Value -3.0%
I Shares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Small cap +5.2%
Midcap stock funds -4.66
International Index (MSCI – EAFE ex USA +2%
Financial stocks -10%
Energy stocks -36%
Healthcare Stocks +11%

Moderate Mutual Fund Investment Grade Bonds (AAA) Long duration +6.5%
igh Yield Merrill Lynch High Yield Index +1.9%

Floating Rate Bond Funds -.60%
Short Term Bond +1.6%
Mutli sector bond funds +2.3%

I do expect potential major volatility over the next few months if the Republicans lose the Senate.

Classicalprinicples.com and Robert Genetskis Excerpts

Market Outlook

Stocks were mixed this past week. The previously out-of-favor small caps rose 3%-4%, when the Nasdaq and QQQs fell 2%-3%. The Dow and S&P500 gained 1%-2%. I expect stocks to continue to consolidate within the range of the past five months. Biden’s choice of advisors is interesting. His Chief of Staff was the one in charge of fighting Ebola. He admitted they had made every mistake imaginable in that fight. Another medical advisor says the country should lock down for 4-6 weeks and can simply pay workers and businesses for lost income. Just what Biden needs… another advisor with no concept of economics feeding him mush. It’s important to pay attention to Biden’s advisors. Their ideas can provide a clue to just how crazy things can get. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevent the chaos that would result from such complete nonsense.

A Look Back

The latest weekly data show the labor market continues to improve in spite of Covid. Initial unemployment claims fell to 709,000 in the first week of this month. This is down about 140,000 from the previous month. For the final week in October, the insured unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, down from 7.5% from the previous month. The number of people receiving insured unemployment payments fell to 6.8 million. There were close to 11 million a month ago.

What to expect this coming week

Look for the economic numbers to continue to show the economy performing well. Tuesday’s report for manufacturing in October should be a strong one. Business surveys show manufacturing production increasing dramatically in October. Hence, the Fed’s manufacturing number should be up substantially.

Source: Classical Principles.com

S&P 500 Chart Source: AIQsystems.com

The S&P 500 is above. As you can see my computer models gave a BUY signal on 10/30/20 and another one a couple days later. Another Bullish sign is when it broke above the middle of the W pattern. This is BULLISH unless it breaks down below that breakout. Now it has to breakout from the old high of 3648. If it does with conviction volume watch the 3750 area for some resistance. But it has to breakout from 3648 with a lot of volume first.

We are now in a bullish seasonal pattern for the market. One year from now I think the economy will do much better than it is now and the markets should be higher as well.

MACD or Momentum is still Bullish as the pink line has broken out of the blue line showing positive momentum.

Support levels on the S&P 500 area are 3546, 3392-3405, 3306 and 3244. 3143 is 200 Day Moving average
NASDAQ Support, 11621, 11300-11360, 11062. Resistance is 12075
These may be safer areas to get into the equity markets on support levels slowly on the accumulation areas.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

The market has rebounded nicely over the last month mainly because of earnings of companies beating expectations. The NASDAQ has done the best this year and should continue to do well IF the market continues higher. Now that the vaccine is a reality the value stocks should start to rise. You may want to call me to review everything including your 401(k) to determine the best allocation going forward. I like the USA market better than the international market.

Best to all of you,

Joe Bartosiewicz, CFP®
Investment Advisor Representative

92 High Street
Thomaston, CT 06787
860-940-7020

Securities and advisory services offered through SagePoint Financial, Inc. (SPF), member FINRA/SIPC. SPF is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of SPF. 800-552-3319 20 East Thomas Road Ste 2000 Phoenix AZ 85012

Charts provided by AIQ Systems:

Technical Analysis is based on a study of historical price movements and past trend patterns. There is no assurance that these market changes or trends can or will be duplicated shortly. It logically follows that historical precedent does not guarantee future results. Conclusions expressed in the Technical Analysis section are personal opinions: and may not be construed as recommendations to buy or sell anything.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are not necessarily the view of Sage Point Financial, Inc. and should not be interpreted directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Securities and Advisory services offered through Sage Point Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC, an SEC-registered investment advisor.

Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented in this letter should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice. *There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment. No investment strategy, such as asset allocation, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
It is our goal to help investors by identifying changing market conditions. However, investors should be aware that no investment advisor can accurately predict all of the changes that may occur in the market.

The price of commodities is subject to substantial price fluctuations of short periods and may be affected by unpredictable international monetary and political policies. The market for commodities is widely unregulated, and concentrated investing may lead to Sector investing may involve a greater degree of risk than investments with broader diversification.

Indexes cannot be invested indirectly, are unmanaged, and do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: A weighted price average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 is an unmanaged indexed comprised of 500 widely held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

NASDAQ: the NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over the counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System

(IWM) I Shares Russell 2000 ETF: Which tracks the Russell 2000 index: which measures the performance of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market.

A Moderate Mutual Fund risk mutual has approximately 50-70% of its portfolio in different equities, from growth, income stocks, international and emerging markets stocks to 30-50% of its portfolio in different categories of bonds and cash. It seeks capital appreciation with a low to moderate level of current income.

The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index: A broad-based measure of the performance of non-investment grade US Bonds

MSCI EAFE: the MSCI EAFE Index (Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia, and Far East Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-US markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies’ representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends.

Investment grade bond index: The S&P 500 Investment-grade corporate bond index, a sub-index of the S&P 500 Bond Index, seeks to measure the performance of the US corporate debt issued by constituents in the S&P 500 with an investment-grade rating. The S&P 500 Bond index is designed to be a corporate-bond counterpart to the S&P 500, which is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap US equities.

Floating Rate Bond Index is a rule-based, market-value weighted index engineered to measure the performance and characteristics of floating-rate coupon U.S. Treasuries, which have a maturity greater than 12 months.



Looking for Ideas “Off the Beaten Path”

For the record, I am an avowed “trend-follower.”  But I also know that no trend lasts forever.  So, while I have gotten pretty good at “riding along”, I do – like most people – like to “look ahead” since I do know that the landscape will forever be changing.

So, with the caveat that none of what follows should be considered a “call to action”, only as a “call to pay attention”, let’s venture out “into the weeds.”

AIROIL

Here is an ugly pairing – airline stocks and traditional energy stocks – yikes!  In Figure 1 you see an index that I created and followed call AIROIL comprised of three airline stocks and five “Big Oil” stocks.  During the pandemic meltdown this index fell to a level not seen since 2007 before “bouncing”. 

Editors Note: 

Jay's AIROIL Index is built using the AIQ Data Manager by creating a list andcreating a group ticker (in this case AIROIL).  Stocks are inserted under the ticker and the index is then computed using  Compute Group/Sector indices. 

Figure 1 – Jay’s AIROIL Index (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

In the bottom clip you see an indicator I call VFAA.  Note that when VFAA tops out and rolls over, meaningful advances in the index tend to follow.  In addition, VFAA is at a high level seen only once before in 2009. Following that reversal, the index rose almost 500% over the next 9 years.

So, is now a great time to pile into airlines and big oil?  One would have to be a pretty hard-core contrarian to pound the table on this one.  The airlines are in terrible shape due to the pandemic and vast uncertainty remains regarding when things might improve.  And “Big Oil” is about as unloved as any sector has ever been. 

So, am I suggesting anyone “load up” on airlines and oil?  Nope.  What I am saying is that I am watching this closely and that if and when VFAA “rolls over” I may look to commit some money to these sectors on a longer-term contrarian basis.

International/Commodities/Value

Also known of late as “the barking dogs”.  If you have had money committed to any or all of these asset classes in recent years you are shaking your head right about now.  These areas have VASTLY underperformed a simple “buy-and-hold the S&P 500 Index” approach for a number of years.

Is this state of affairs going to change anytime soon?  Regarding “anytime soon” – it beats me.  However, I am on the record as arguing that at some point this WILL change.  History makes one thing very clear – no asset class has a permanent edge.  So, given that the S&P 500 Index has beaten these above mentioned by such a wide margin for such a long time (roughly a decade or more) I am confident that one day in the next x years, the “worm will turn.”

Figure 2 displays an index that I created and follow that tracks an international ETF, a commodity ETF and a value ETF.  The VFAA indicator appears in the bottom clip. 

Figure 2 – Jay’s INTCOMVAL Index (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Now if history is a guide, then the recent “rollover” by VFAA suggests that this particular grouping of asset classes should perform well in the coming years.  Two things to note:

1. There is no guarantee

2. There is absolutely no sign yet that “the turn” – relative to the S&P 500 – is occurring

Figure 3, 4 and 5 are “relative strength” charts from www.StockCharts.com.  They DO NOT display the price of any security; they display the performance of the first ETF list compared to the second ETF listed.  So, Figure 3 displays the performance of ticker EFA (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF which tracks a broad index of stocks from around the globe, excluding the U.S.) relative to the S&P 500 Index.

When the bars are trending lower it means EFA is underperforming SPY and vice versa.  The trend in Figure 3 is fairly obvious – international stocks continue to lose ground to U.S. large-cap stocks. 

Figure 3 – Ticker EFA relative to ticker SPY (Courtesy: www.StockCharts.com)

If your goal is to pick a bottom, have at it.  As for me, I am waiting for some “signs of life” in international stocks relative to U.S. stocks before doing anything.

Figure 4 displays ticker DBC (a commodity-based ETF) versus SPY and Figure 5 displays ticker VTV (Vanguard Value ETF) versus ticker VUG (Vanguard Growth ETF). Both tell the same tale as Figure 3 – unless you are an avowed bottom-picker there is no actionable intelligence.  Still, both these trends are now extremely overdone, so a significant opportunity may be forming. 

Figure 4 – Ticker DBC relative to ticker SPY (Courtesy: www.StockCharts.com)

Figure 5 – Ticker VTV relative to ticker VUG (Courtesy: www.StockCharts.com)

Summary

Two key points as succinctly as possible:

*Nothing is happening at the moment with everything displayed above…

*…But something will (at least in my market-addled opinion) – so pay close attention.

Jay Kaeppel

Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author.  The information presented represents the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service.  In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.  The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources.  While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information.  International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  There is risk of loss in all trading.  Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance.  Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.

Dow 30 MACD picture – Dotcom vs Covid

You may have seen some of the articles out there analyzing the skewed nature of the current market rally. As Joe Bartosiewicz in his August 8 Bartometer pointed out:

“The Top 15 Stocks in the S&P 500 account in Market Value 35% of the entire S&P 500 stock market. The Bottom 420 Stocks in the S&P 500 account in Market Value 33.8% of the entire S&P 500 stock market. This means that 15 stocks are controlling the entire S&P 500..”

The Dow Jones 30 index uses a price weighted criteria as part of it’s calculation, and also includes Apple; AAPL has more than doubled in price in under 5 months.

Given that there appears to be only a small basket of stocks leading this rally, we had a look back at the last time tech related stocks were driving the market higher; the dotcom bubble that ran through the 90s into the early 00s.

Monthly DJIA and MACD – left through 3/2002 – right through 10/2002

The first chart is a monthly of the Dow 30 with MACD indicator comparing the market 03/29//2002 as the dotcom bubble rolled over vs 7 months later. Students of divergence analysis, will tell you that MACD in late March 2002 clearly showed prices should be much lower still despite the @33 % rally from the September 2001 low. By late October 2002 the market had fallen again by @33%. At that time the market was close to @40% lower than the high at the start of 2000.


Monthly DJIA and MACD – left through 3/2002 – right through 8/2020

The second chart is a monthly of the Dow 30 on the right through 8/10/20 vs the rally peak of 03/29/2002. The current market has had a @50% rally from the low at the end of March 2020. The original correction was @37% from high to low, slightly bigger than the dotcom correction. The MACD, similar to 2002, is strongly diverging.

The decline in 2002, after the rally, took prices lower than the the prior bottom. If a similar pattern happens this time and the decline is @40% from the high of 29568, the Dow would at the 17700 level.