Category Archives: portfolio management

NASDAQ dive

Working on some slides for a seminar last week, it was apparent that breadth indicators on the NASDAQ signaled a divergence from the price action of the market.
Looking specifically at AD Ind and HI/LO, although other breadth measures told the same tale.

The AD indicator explained

The Advance/Decline Indicator is an exponentially weighted average of the net advancing versus declining issues. With this indicator, the direction of the trend is of importance and not the actual value of the indicator. When the indicator is increasing, advances are outweighing declines, and when it is decreasing, there are more declining is­sues than advancing.
The  Advance/Decline Indicator is a breadth indicator very similar to the Advance/Decline Line.  However, this indicator tends to be more sensitive and at times will signal a move earlier than the Advance/Decline Line.
The breadth was telling us something was amiss from last week. Take a look at this chart of the NASDAQ clearly a divergence was in place before the downturn.
Today’s (10-10-18) 316 point drop in the NASDAQ a 4% drop and nearly 9% drop from the high is close to the 10% corrective point and some buyers may come in over the next few days and keep the decline in check or not.
The markets are down between 6 and 10% in 5 days. Keeping good stops is a must in your portfolio to protect you from the worst of this. Using trailing stops between 7 and 10 % on stocks that are moving and protective stops 5 to 7 % below initial investment for example can easily reduce your losses in these volatile markets.

Portfolio Strategy Based On Accumulation/Distribution

The AIQ code based on Domenico D’Errico’s article in the August issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine, “Portfolio Strategy Based On Accumulation/Distribution,” is shown below.

“Whether you are an individual trader or an asset manager, your main goal in reading a chart is to detect the intentions of major institutions, large operators, well-informed insiders, bankers and so on, so you can follow them. Here, we’ll build an automated stock portfolio strategy based on a cornerstone price analysis theory.”

!Portfolio Strategy Based on Accumulation/Distribution
!Author: Domenic D'Errico, TASC Aug 2018
!Coded by: Richard Denning 6/10/18
!www.TradersEdgeSystem.com
!Portfolio Strategy Based on Accumulation/Distribution
!Author: Domenic D'Errico, TASC Aug 2018
!Coded by: Richard Denning 6/10/18
!www.TradersEdgeSystem.com

!SET TO WEEKLY MODE IN PROPERTIES
!ALSO VIEW CHARTS IN WEEKLY MODE

!INPUTS:
rLen is 4.
consolFac is 75. ! in percent
adxTrigger is 30.
volRatio is 1.
volAvgLen is 4.
volDelay is 4.

!CODING ABREVIATIONS:
H is [high].
L is [low].
C is [close].
C1 is valresult(C,1).
H1 is valresult(H,1).
L1 is valresult(L,1).

!RANGE ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION:
theRange is hival([high],rLen) - loval([low],rLen).
Consol if theRange < consolFac/100 * valresult(theRange,rLen).
rRatio is theRange/valresult(theRange,4)*100.

!AVERAGE TRUE RANGE ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION:
avgLen is rLen * 2 - 1.	
TR  is Max(H-L,max(abs(C1-L),abs(C1-H))).
ATR  is expAvg(TR,avgLen).

ConsolATR if ATR < consolFac/100 * valresult(ATR,rLen). atrRatio is ATR / valresult(ATR,4)*100. !ADX ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION: !ADX INDICATOR as defined by Wells Wilder rhigh is (H-H1). rlow is (L1-L). DMplus is iff(rhigh > 0 and rhigh > rlow, rhigh, 0).
DMminus is iff(rlow > 0 and rlow >= rhigh, rlow, 0).
AvgPlusDM is expAvg(DMplus,avgLen).
AvgMinusDM is expavg(DMminus,avgLen).           	
PlusDMI is (AvgPlusDM/ATR)*100.	
MinusDMI is AvgMinusDM/ATR*100.	
DIdiff is PlusDMI-MinusDMI. 		
Zero if PlusDMI = 0 and MinusDMI =0.
DIsum is PlusDMI+MinusDMI.
DX is iff(ZERO,100,abs(DIdiff)/DIsum*100).
ADX is ExpAvg(DX,avgLen).

ConsolADX if ADX < adxTrigger. !CODE FOR ACCUMULATIOIN/DISTRIBUTION RANGE BREAKOUT: consolOS is scanany(Consol,250) then offsettodate(month(),day(),year()). Top is highresult([high],rLen,^consolOS). Top0 is valresult(Top,^consolOS) then resetdate(). Bot is loval([low],rLen,^consolOS). AvgVol is simpleavg([volume],volAvgLen). Bot12 is valresult(Bot,12). BuyRngBO if [close] > Top
and ^consolOS <= 5 and ^consolOS >= 1
and Bot > Bot12
and valresult(AvgVol,volDelay)>volRatio*valresult(AvgVol,volAvgLen+volDelay).
EntryPrice is [close].

Sell if [close] < loval([low],rLen,1).
ExitPrice is [close].

Figure 9 shows the summary backtest results of the range accumulation breakout system using NASDAQ 100 stocks from December 2006 to June 2018. The exits differ from the author’s as follows: I used two of the built-in exits — a 20% stop-loss and a profit-protect of 40% of profits once profit reaches 10%.

Sample Chart

FIGURE 9: AIQ. Here are the summary results of a backtest using NASDAQ 100 stocks.

Figure 10 shows a color study on REGN. The yellow bars show where the range accumulation/distribution shows a consolidation.

Sample Chart

FIGURE 10: AIQ. This color study shows range consolidation (yellow bars).

—Richard Denning

info@TradersEdgeSystems.com

for AIQ Systems

Volume-Weighted Moving Average Breakouts

The AIQ code based on Ken Calhoun’s article in the February 2017 issue of Technical Analysis ofSTOCKS & COMMODITIES, “Volume-Weighted Moving Average Breakouts,” can be found at http://aiqsystems.com/Volume-Weighted-Moving-Average-Breakouts.EDS 
 
Please note that I tested the author’s system using the NASDAQ 100 list of stocks on daily bars rather than intraday bars from 12/31/2008 thru 2/10/2017. Figure 7 shows the resulting equity curve trading the author’s system with the cross-down exit. Figure 8 shows the ASA report for this test. The annualized return showed about a 17% return with a maximum drawdown of 19%.
Sample Chart

FIGURE 7: AIQ. Here are sample test results from the AIQ Portfolio Manager taking three signals per day and 10 concurrent positions maximum run on NASDAQ 100 stocks (daily bar data) over the period 12/31/08 to 2/10/07.
Sample Chart

FIGURE 8: AIQ. This shows the ASA report for the system, which shows the test metrics and settings.
The code and EDS file can be downloaded from http://aiqsystems.com/Volume-Weighted-Moving-Average-Breakouts.EDS , and is also shown below.
!Volume-Weighted Moving Average Breakouts
!Author: Ken Calhoun, TASC Apr 2017
!Coded by: Richard Denning 2/11/17
!www.TradersEdgeSystems.com

!INPUTS:
smaLen is 70.
vwmaLen is 50.

SMA is simpleavg([close],smaLen).
VWMA is sum([close]*[volume],vwmaLen)/sum([volume],vwmaLen).
HasData if hasdatafor(max(smaLen,vwmaLen)+10)>max(smaLen,vwmaLen).
Buy if SMA < VWMA and valrule(SMA > VWMA,1) and HasData.
Sell if SMA > VWMA.

rsVWMA is VWMA / valresult(VWMA,vwmaLen)-1.
rsSMA is SMA / valresult(SMA,smaLen)-1.
—Richard Denning
info@TradersEdgeSystems.com
for AIQ Systems