The SPX ‘Magic Number’

According to one simple technique the “Magic Number” for the S&P 500 Index is 2872.87.  According to this simple technique if the S&P 550 Index closes above this number the stock market “should” continue to be bullish for at least another year.

Sounds optimistic? Well, there certainly are no “sure things” in the financial markets.  Still, let’s take a closer look.

The Simple Technique

The technique I mentioned works like this:

When the S&P 500 Index:

*Closes at its highest price in the past 252 trading days

*For the 1st time in the most recent 126 trading days

*It generates a bullish signal for the next 252 trading days

In essence, we are talking about buying when the index makes a 1-year high for the 1st time in 6 months and holding for 1 year.

Figure 1 displays the most recent previous buy signal that occurred on 7/11/16.  The sell date was 252 trading days later on 7/11/17.


Figure 1 – 2016 Signal (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Figure 2 displays the signal before that which occurred on 2/27/12.  The sell date was 252 trading days later on 2/26/13.


Figure 2 – 2012 Signal (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Figure 3 displays all the signals since 1933.

Buy Date Sell Date Buy Price Sell Price %+(-)
5/27/33 4/6/34 9.64 10.95 +13.6
5/18/35 3/20/36 9.87 15.04 +52.4
10/6/38 8/9/39 12.82 11.78 (8.1)
10/7/42 8/10/43 9.17 11.71 +27.7
6/1/44 4/7/45 12.31 13.84 +12.4
5/15/48 4/8/49 16.55 14.97 (9.5)
10/5/49 8/23/50 15.78 18.82 +19.3
3/5/54 3/4/55 26.52 37.52 +41.5
8/4/58 8/4/59 47.94 60.61 +26.4
1/10/61 11/2/62 58.97 57.75 (2.1)
4/15/63 4/15/64 69.09 80.09 +15.9
4/24/67 4/25/68 92.62 96.62 +4.3
4/30/68 6/9/69 97.46 101.2 +3.8
1/8/71 1/6/72 92.19 103.51 +12.3
2/7/72 2/8/73 104.54 113.16 +8.2
6/24/75 6/22/76 94.19 103.47 +9.9
8/1/78 7/31/79 100.66 103.81 +3.1
8/14/79 8/12/80 107.52 123.79 +15.1
10/8/82 10/6/83 131.05 170.28 +29.9
11/7/84 11/7/85 169.17 192.62 +13.9
10/19/88 10/18/89 276.97 341.76 +23.4
5/30/90 2/13/92 360.86 413.69 +14.6
7/30/92 7/29/93 423.92 450.24 +6.2
2/6/95 2/5/96 481.14 641.43 +33.3
9/3/03 9/2/04 1026.27 1118.31 +9.0
11/5/04 11/4/05 1166.17 1220.14 +4.6
10/13/09 10/13/10 1073.19 1178.1 +9.8
11/5/10 11/4/11 1225.85 1253.23 +2.2
2/27/12 2/26/13 1367.59 1496.94 +9.5
7/11/16 7/11/17 2137.16 2425.53 +13.5

Figure 3 – Previous Signals

Things to note:

*27 of the 30 signals (i.e., 90%) have witnessed a 12-month gain

*3 of 30 signals (i.e., 10%) have witnessed a loss

*The last “losing trade” occurred in 1961-1962

*The last 20 signals have been followed by a 12-month gain for the S&P 500

*The average of all 30 signals is +13.9%

*The average for all 27 winning trades is +16.1%

*The average of all 3 losing trades is -6.6%

*The worst losing trade was -9.5%

Two Technical Notes

Believe it or not, into the early 1950’s the stock market used to be open on Saturday.  So those days counted toward the 126 and 252 trading days counts.  This explains why the buy and sell dates prior to 1954 were less than one calendar year apart.

It is possible to get a new signal before an existing signal reaches it’s Sell Date.  In those rare cases we simply extend the holding period an additional 252 trading days.  This occurred in 1961-1962, 1968-1969, 1990-1992.

Figure 4 shows that SPX is very close to generating a new signal.  The most recent high close was in January at 2872.87 which was more than 126 trading days ago.  A new signal will occur if SPX closes above that level.


Figure 4 – Potential new signal forming (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)


The Good News is that this technique has a 90% accuracy rate and that one good day in the market could generated a new buy signal.  The Bad News is that – as I mentioned earlier – there are no “sure things” in the market.  Given that this particular method is on a 20-trade winning streak, it is understandable to think that maybe the law of averages is against it this time.

We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

Jay Kaeppel

Disclaimer:  The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources.  While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information.  The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

89 thoughts on “The SPX ‘Magic Number’

  1. I simply wanted to thank you so much yet again. I’m not certain what I would have tried in the absence of the type of advice documented by you about this theme. It was before a very scary problem for me, however , taking note of a professional fashion you resolved the issue forced me to weep over delight. I will be happy for your work and thus wish you realize what a powerful job you are doing teaching people today all through a site. Most likely you haven’t got to know all of us.

  2. I must get across my affection for your kind-heartedness in support of persons that should have guidance on that situation. Your very own dedication to passing the message throughout ended up being remarkably practical and has surely empowered ladies just like me to realize their aims. Your entire insightful suggestions means much to me and somewhat more to my office colleagues. With thanks; from each one of us.

  3. I just want to say I am just newbie to weblog and seriously savored this website. Almost certainly I’m going to bookmark your blog post . You definitely come with awesome article content. Many thanks for sharing with us your blog site.

  4. My wife and i got so joyful when Peter could round up his inquiry through the entire ideas he grabbed through the weblog. It is now and again perplexing to simply find yourself freely giving guidelines which people today might have been making money from. We keep in mind we’ve got the writer to thank because of that. All the illustrations you’ve made, the straightforward blog menu, the friendships your site help to instill – it is most impressive, and it is making our son in addition to us recognize that that issue is satisfying, and that is highly serious. Thanks for the whole lot!

  5. Woah! I’m really enjoying the template/theme of this website. It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s very difficult to get that “perfect balance” between user friendliness and visual appearance. I must say you’ve done a fantastic job with this. In addition, the blog loads super quick for me on Chrome. Exceptional Blog!

  6. Nice post. I was checking continuously this blog and I’m impressed! Extremely helpful information specially the closing part 🙂 I handle such information a lot. I was seeking this particular info for a long time. Thank you and good luck.

  7. Thanks for making me to attain new tips about pcs. I also contain the belief that certain of the best ways to maintain your laptop computer in primary condition is by using a hard plastic case, or shell, that will fit over the top of the computer. These types of protective gear usually are model unique since they are made to fit perfectly in the natural outer shell. You can buy them directly from the seller, or from third party sources if they are readily available for your laptop computer, however not every laptop can have a spend on the market. Yet again, thanks for your recommendations.

  8. I’m not certain where you are getting your info, however great topic. I must spend some time learning much more or figuring out more. Thank you for fantastic info I used to be searching for this information for my mission.

  9. Thank you for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do some research about this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more from this post. I am very glad to see such great information being shared freely out there.

  10. I simply wanted to write down a comment so as to appreciate you for these precious tips and tricks you are giving out at this site. My extended internet search has now been compensated with brilliant facts and strategies to talk about with my partners. I would suppose that many of us visitors are extremely endowed to live in a wonderful place with very many lovely professionals with very helpful ideas. I feel very lucky to have used your entire website and look forward to so many more fun minutes reading here. Thanks once again for a lot of things.

  11. Do you have a spam issue on this website; I also am a blogger, and I was wondering your situation; we have created some nice methods and we are looking to swap solutions with other folks, be sure to shoot me an e-mail if interested.

  12. I cling on to listening to the reports speak about receiving free online grant applications so I have been looking around for the best site to get one. Could you advise me please, where could i get some?

  13. Thanks for sharing superb informations. Your web-site is very cool. I am impressed by the details that you’ve on this website. It reveals how nicely you perceive this subject. Bookmarked this web page, will come back for extra articles. You, my friend, ROCK! I found just the information I already searched everywhere and simply couldn’t come across. What a great web-site.

  14. I do accept as true with all of the ideas you’ve presented in your post. They’re really convincing and can definitely work. Still, the posts are too short for novices. May just you please extend them a little from subsequent time? Thanks for the post.

  15. Appreciate you for sharing these wonderful blogposts. In addition, an excellent travel and also medical insurance system can often relieve those issues that come with vacationing abroad. A new medical crisis can quickly become extremely expensive and that’s absolute to quickly decide to put a financial weight on the family finances. Putting in place the ideal travel insurance bundle prior to leaving is definitely worth the time and effort. Thanks a lot

  16. Pingback: viagra
  17. Pingback: levitra
  18. Pingback: cialis
  19. hi!,I like your writing so a lot! proportion we be in contact more about your article on AOL? I need a specialist on this space to unravel my problem. Maybe that’s you! Having a look ahead to peer you.

  20. Pingback: generic levitra
  21. Normally I do not read post on blogs, however I wish to say that this write-up very pressured me to check out and do so! Your writing style has been surprised me. Thanks, quite nice article.

  22. Pingback: cheap viagra
  23. Pingback: cialis canada
  24. Pingback: levitra 20 mg
  25. Pingback: cialis vs viagra
  26. Pingback: cialis coupon
  27. Pingback: levitra coupon
  28. Pingback: dutch women viagra
  29. Pingback: cialis dosage
  30. Pingback: levitra generic
  31. Pingback: female viagra
  32. Pingback: cialis free trial
  33. Pingback: levitra vs viagra
  34. Pingback: generic viagra
  35. Pingback: cialis generic
  36. Pingback: cialis online
  37. Pingback: natural viagra
  38. Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I’ve really enjoyed browsing your blog posts. After all I will be subscribing to your rss feed and I hope you write again very soon!

  39. Pingback: cialis prices
  40. Pingback: sophia viagra
  41. Pingback: generic cialis
  42. Pingback: viagra coupons
  43. Pingback: viagra vs cialis
  44. Pingback: viagra for men
  45. Pingback: viagra for sale
  46. you are in reality a excellent webmaster. The site loading pace is incredible. It seems that you are doing any distinctive trick. Also, The contents are masterpiece. you have done a wonderful process on this topic!

  47. One thing I would like to reply to is that weightloss routine fast can be achieved by the proper diet and exercise. Ones size not merely affects appearance, but also the complete quality of life. Self-esteem, depressive disorder, health risks, as well as physical ability are afflicted in an increase in weight. It is possible to do everything right and still gain. If this happens, a condition may be the perpetrator. While excessive food rather than enough exercising are usually the culprit, common medical ailments and traditionally used prescriptions can easily greatly add to size. Thx for your post here.

  48. I am so happy to read this. This is the kind of manual that needs to be given and not the random misinformation that is at the other blogs. Appreciate your sharing this best doc.

  49. I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this blog. I’m hoping the same high-grade blog post from you in the upcoming also. Actually your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my own site now. Really the blogging is spreading its wings quickly. Your write up is a good example of it.

  50. I would like to thnkx for the efforts you’ve put in writing this site. I am hoping the same high-grade site post from you in the upcoming also. Actually your creative writing skills has encouraged me to get my own blog now. Actually the blogging is spreading its wings quickly. Your write up is a great example of it.

  51. Terrific work! This is the type of information that should be shared around the net. Shame on Google for not positioning this post higher! Come on over and visit my site . Thanks =)

  52. Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the internet the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while people consider worries that they just don’t know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the whole thing without having side-effects , people can take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks

  53. An impressive share, I just given this onto a colleague who was doing a bit of evaluation on this. And he in truth bought me breakfast because I discovered it for him.. smile. So let me reword that: Thnx for the treat! But yeah Thnkx for spending the time to discuss this, I really feel strongly about it and love reading more on this topic. If potential, as you grow to be experience, would you thoughts updating your weblog with more details? It is highly helpful for me. Massive thumb up for this blog post!

  54. Hello there, just became aware of your blog through Google, and found that it’s really informative. I am gonna watch out for brussels. I will appreciate if you continue this in future. Numerous people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  55. It is in reality a nice and helpful piece of information. I am glad that you shared this helpful information with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.

  56. I’ll right away grab your rss feed as I can’t find your e-mail subscription link or e-newsletter service. Do you have any? Please let me know in order that I could subscribe. Thanks.

  57. You can definitely see your expertise in the work you write. The arena hopes for more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to mention how they believe. Always follow your heart. “A simple fact that is hard to learn is that the time to save money is when you have some.” by Joe Moore.

  58. My spouse and i felt really lucky Louis could conclude his reports with the precious recommendations he was given from your very own web page. It’s not at all simplistic to just happen to be making a gift of methods others may have been trying to sell. And we also know we have got you to give thanks to because of that. Most of the explanations you made, the simple site menu, the friendships you aid to engender – it is everything excellent, and it’s really leading our son in addition to us consider that that topic is enjoyable, and that is tremendously vital. Thanks for everything!

  59. I think this is among the so much significant information for me. And i am satisfied studying your article. However want to commentary on some common things, The web site style is great, the articles is truly great : D. Just right task, cheers

  60. Thank you a lot for providing individuals with remarkably nice chance to discover important secrets from this site. It is usually very kind and as well , stuffed with a great time for me personally and my office colleagues to visit your web site nearly three times every week to study the newest stuff you have got. And lastly, I’m so actually motivated with all the wonderful ideas you serve. Some two areas in this post are ultimately the most suitable I have had.

  61. Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the internet the simplest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while people think about worries that they plainly don’t know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the whole thing without having side-effects , people can take a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

  62. Hello there, just turned into aware of your weblog through Google, and located that it is truly informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels. I’ll appreciate in the event you continue this in future. A lot of folks can be benefited out of your writing. Cheers!

  63. Wow! This can be one particular of the most useful blogs We’ve ever arrive across on this subject. Basically Fantastic. I am also an expert in this topic so I can understand your effort.

  64. Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to mention that I have truly loved browsing your weblog posts. After all I will be subscribing for your rss feed and I am hoping you write once more soon!

  65. Thanks for your submission. I also believe that laptop computers are becoming more and more popular currently, and now in many cases are the only type of computer used in a household. The reason is that at the same time potentially they are becoming more and more cost-effective, their computing power keeps growing to the point where these are as strong as pc’s coming from just a few years ago.

  66. I additionally believe that mesothelioma cancer is a exceptional form of melanoma that is often found in those people previously subjected to asbestos. Cancerous cells form inside mesothelium, which is a defensive lining that covers many of the body’s organs. These cells ordinarily form inside the lining from the lungs, abdominal area, or the sac which encircles one’s heart. Thanks for expressing your ideas.

  67. Aw, this was a really nice post. In concept I would like to put in writing like this additionally – taking time and precise effort to make an excellent article… but what can I say… I procrastinate alot and in no way seem to get one thing done.

  68. This is very interesting, You’re an excessively professional blogger. I’ve joined your rss feed and stay up for looking for extra of your excellent post. Additionally, I have shared your website in my social networks!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.